A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
